- TRx = Total prescriptions
- NRx = New prescriptions, but not necessarily a new therapy for the patient
- NBRx = New prescriptions, as in the first time a patient is being prescribed a particular drug
Model 1 - penetration model
Predict NBRx volume for writers
Unit of analysis - physician week/month
Target Variable - NBRx volume
Notes
- EDA to find NBRx volume share
- Internal sales and claims data
- Email distribution analysis
Model 2 - conversion model
Classification model for non-writer and writers - conversion model
Unit of analysis - physician week/month
Target Variable - non-writer to writer (binary variable) [0 = non-writer, 1 = writer]
Notes
Model 3 - Call plan optimization
Across different channels (calls and emails) optimize value of (hcp value) calls and emails outreach for sales team
Optimization model - mixed integer optimization problem
Scenario generation
- Call detail for each value horizon [0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9]
- Email outreach [0, 1]
Objective function
Non-writer: Probability of conversion x Expected NBRx volume
Writer: Expected NBRx volume